Target Price Playground
PANW
$167.85
๐ข
PANW IV: 42.4% โ LOW
(-26.7% vs 30d avg of 57.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $185 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
61d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $167.85 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $160 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.8 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PANW hits $185 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$835 (4.7%) on $17,665 risked, vs +$1,715 (10.2%) for 100 shares on $16,785. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (61 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PANW is at $185. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PANW hits $185 by Jun 19
+$835
+4.7% on $17,665 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$1,665
Put floors you at $160
Break-even
$176.65
+5.24% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
57%
IV-implied, 61d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.92 / -9.14 / 26.32
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PANW Price | Today | May 9 | May 29 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $134 (-20%) | -$1,531 | -$1,609 | -$1,672 | -$1,665 |
| $143 (-15%) | -$1,318 | -$1,446 | -$1,586 | -$1,665 |
| $151 (-10%) | -$1,010 | -$1,176 | -$1,388 | -$1,665 |
| $159 (-5%) | -$602 | -$788 | -$1,036 | -$1,665 |
| $164 (-2%) | -$311 | -$499 | -$746 | -$1,216 |
| $168 (0%) โ spot | -$98 | -$283 | -$522 | -$880 |
| $171 (+2%) | +$129 | -$51 | -$276 | -$544 |
| $176 (+5%) | +$491 | +$324 | +$128 | -$41 |
| $185 (+10%) โ target | +$1,181 | +$1,043 | +$904 | +$835 |
| $193 (+15%) | +$1,866 | +$1,757 | +$1,665 | +$1,638 |
| $201 (+20%) | +$2,621 | +$2,541 | +$2,487 | +$2,477 |
Uses PANW's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.