Target Price Playground
PANW
$167.85
๐ข
PANW IV: 42.4% โ LOW
(-26.7% vs 30d avg of 57.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $195 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
61d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $170 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.7 ยท ฮ 0.52
LONG PUT ยท $170 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.6 ยท ฮ -0.49
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PANW hits $195 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-30 (-1.2%) on $2,530 risked, vs +$2,715 (16.2%) for 100 shares on $16,785. Options give 0.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (61 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PANW is at $195. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PANW hits $195 by Jun 19
$-30
-1.2% on $2,530 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$2,530
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$144.70
-13.79% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
37%
IV-implied, 61d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
3.13 / -20.35 / 54.79
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PANW Price | Today | May 9 | May 29 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $134 (-20%) | +$1,185 | +$1,073 | +$1,014 | +$1,042 |
| $143 (-15%) | +$614 | +$407 | +$232 | +$203 |
| $151 (-10%) | +$196 | -$110 | -$440 | -$636 |
| $159 (-5%) | -$45 | -$432 | -$908 | -$1,476 |
| $164 (-2%) | -$99 | -$518 | -$1,055 | -$1,979 |
| $168 (0%) โ spot | -$97 | -$530 | -$1,092 | -$2,315 |
| $171 (+2%) | -$66 | -$506 | -$1,078 | -$2,409 |
| $176 (+5%) | +$34 | -$405 | -$967 | -$1,906 |
| $185 (+10%) | +$331 | -$80 | -$570 | -$1,066 |
| $193 (+15%) | +$769 | +$409 | +$25 | -$227 |
| $195 (+16%) โ target | +$889 | +$543 | +$185 | -$30 |
| $201 (+20%) | +$1,320 | +$1,022 | +$743 | +$612 |
Uses PANW's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.