Target Price Playground
PANW
$169.56
๐ข
PANW IV: 44.3% โ LOW
(-23.3% vs 30d avg of 57.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $150 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
59d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $170 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.8 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $155 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.15 ยท ฮ -0.27
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PANW hits $150 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$935 (165.5%) on $565 risked, vs $-1,956 (-11.5%) for 100 shares on $16,956. Options give 14.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (59 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PANW is at $150. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PANW hits $150 by Jun 19
+$935
+165.5% on $565 risked
Max Profit
+$935
If the stock โค $155 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$565
Net debit
Break-even
$164.35
-3.07% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
51%
IV-implied, 59d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-17.87 / -1.11 / 4.73
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PANW Price | Today | May 10 | May 30 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $136 (-20%) | +$709 | +$774 | +$869 | +$935 |
| $144 (-15%) | +$573 | +$633 | +$747 | +$935 |
| $150 (-12%) โ target | +$462 | +$508 | +$606 | +$935 |
| $153 (-10%) | +$410 | +$447 | +$530 | +$935 |
| $161 (-5%) | +$235 | +$238 | +$246 | +$327 |
| $166 (-2%) | +$131 | +$112 | +$71 | -$182 |
| $170 (0%) โ spot | +$64 | +$32 | -$38 | -$521 |
| $173 (+2%) | -$0 | -$44 | -$138 | -$565 |
| $178 (+5%) | -$90 | -$149 | -$266 | -$565 |
| $187 (+10%) | -$220 | -$291 | -$415 | -$565 |
| $195 (+15%) | -$322 | -$395 | -$499 | -$565 |
| $203 (+20%) | -$400 | -$464 | -$539 | -$565 |
Uses PANW's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.