Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PANW hits $180 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$615 (4.1%) on $-615 credit (max loss $14,885), vs +$1,044 (6.2%) for 100 shares on $16,956. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (59 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PANW is at $180. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PANW Price | Today | May 10 | May 30 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $136 (-20%) | -$1,558 | -$1,458 | -$1,352 | -$1,320 |
| $144 (-15%) | -$986 | -$843 | -$657 | -$472 |
| $153 (-10%) | -$522 | -$353 | -$117 | +$375 |
| $161 (-5%) | -$164 | +$8 | +$244 | +$615 |
| $166 (-2%) | +$5 | +$169 | +$383 | +$615 |
| $170 (0%) โ spot | +$100 | +$255 | +$450 | +$615 |
| $173 (+2%) | +$182 | +$328 | +$499 | +$615 |
| $178 (+5%) | +$285 | +$413 | +$550 | +$615 |
| $180 (+6%) โ target | +$318 | +$439 | +$564 | +$615 |
| $187 (+10%) | +$410 | +$507 | +$592 | +$615 |
| $195 (+15%) | +$491 | +$560 | +$608 | +$615 |
| $203 (+20%) | +$541 | +$588 | +$613 | +$615 |