Target Price Playground
PANW
$169.56
๐ข
PANW IV: 44.3% โ LOW
(-23.3% vs 30d avg of 57.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $185 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
59d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $169.56 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $185 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.8 ยท ฮ 0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PANW hits $185 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$2,224 (13.7%) on $16,276 risked, vs +$1,544 (9.1%) for 100 shares on $16,956. Options give 1.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (59 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PANW is at $185. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PANW hits $185 by Jun 19
+$2,224
+13.7% on $16,276 risked
Max Profit
+$2,224
If the stock โฅ $185 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$16,276
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$162.76
-4.01% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
60%
IV-implied, 59d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.49 / 10.2 / -24.96
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PANW Price | Today | May 10 | May 30 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $136 (-20%) | -$2,758 | -$2,725 | -$2,712 | -$2,711 |
| $144 (-15%) | -$1,972 | -$1,907 | -$1,867 | -$1,863 |
| $153 (-10%) | -$1,236 | -$1,127 | -$1,037 | -$1,016 |
| $161 (-5%) | -$565 | -$407 | -$243 | -$168 |
| $166 (-2%) | -$201 | -$15 | +$199 | +$341 |
| $170 (0%) โ spot | +$24 | +$227 | +$473 | +$680 |
| $173 (+2%) | +$235 | +$453 | +$728 | +$1,019 |
| $178 (+5%) | +$524 | +$759 | +$1,069 | +$1,528 |
| $185 (+9%) โ target | +$866 | +$1,114 | +$1,448 | +$2,224 |
| $195 (+15%) | +$1,256 | +$1,501 | +$1,818 | +$2,224 |
| $203 (+20%) | +$1,503 | +$1,729 | +$1,999 | +$2,224 |
Uses PANW's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.