Target Price Playground
PANW
$169.56
๐ข
PANW IV: 44.3% โ LOW
(-23.3% vs 30d avg of 57.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $160 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
59d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $170 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.6 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $160 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.7 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PANW hits $160 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$762 (129.1%) on $590 risked, vs $-956 (-5.6%) for 100 shares on $16,956. Options give 23.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (59 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PANW is at $160. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PANW hits $160 by Jun 19
+$762
+129.1% on $590 risked
Max Profit
+$741
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$578
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$174.75
+3.06% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
75%
IV-implied, 59d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-11.67 / 1.91 / 6.89
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PANW Price | Today | May 10 | May 30 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $136 (-20%) | +$349 | +$379 | +$404 | +$375 |
| $144 (-15%) | +$317 | +$362 | +$423 | +$431 |
| $153 (-10%) | +$260 | +$312 | +$401 | +$560 |
| $160 (-6%) โ target | +$192 | +$239 | +$328 | +$763 |
| $166 (-2%) | +$125 | +$161 | +$229 | +$393 |
| $170 (0%) โ spot | +$86 | +$114 | +$164 | +$221 |
| $173 (+2%) | +$44 | +$64 | +$94 | +$72 |
| $178 (+5%) | -$18 | -$13 | -$13 | -$113 |
| $187 (+10%) | -$122 | -$139 | -$182 | -$329 |
| $195 (+15%) | -$218 | -$252 | -$320 | -$456 |
| $203 (+20%) | -$302 | -$346 | -$421 | -$526 |
Uses PANW's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.