Target Price Playground
PANW
$161.59
๐ข
PANW IV: 42.1% โ LOW
(-24.7% vs 30d avg of 55.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $180 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $161.59 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $155 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.55 ยท ฮ -0.39
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PANW hits $180 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$786 (4.6%) on $17,214 risked, vs +$1,841 (11.4%) for 100 shares on $16,159. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PANW is at $180. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PANW hits $180 by Jun 19
+$786
+4.6% on $17,214 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$1,714
Put floors you at $155
Break-even
$172.14
+6.53% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
54%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
60.58 / -9.05 / 25.96
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PANW Price | Today | May 6 | May 28 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $129 (-20%) | -$1,585 | -$1,661 | -$1,723 | -$1,714 |
| $137 (-15%) | -$1,381 | -$1,503 | -$1,644 | -$1,714 |
| $145 (-10%) | -$1,089 | -$1,249 | -$1,462 | -$1,714 |
| $154 (-5%) | -$703 | -$885 | -$1,138 | -$1,714 |
| $158 (-2%) | -$428 | -$613 | -$870 | -$1,378 |
| $162 (0%) โ spot | -$228 | -$411 | -$662 | -$1,055 |
| $165 (+2%) | -$15 | -$194 | -$433 | -$732 |
| $170 (+5%) | +$327 | +$158 | -$54 | -$247 |
| $178 (+10%) | +$950 | +$806 | +$647 | +$561 |
| $180 (+11%) โ target | +$1,134 | +$998 | +$853 | +$786 |
| $186 (+15%) | +$1,627 | +$1,512 | +$1,404 | +$1,369 |
| $194 (+20%) | +$2,344 | +$2,257 | +$2,190 | +$2,177 |
Uses PANW's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.