Target Price Playground
PANW
$155.73
๐ข
PANW IV: 42.1% โ LOW
(-25.7% vs 30d avg of 56.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $135 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $155 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.4 ยท ฮ -0.47
SHORT PUT ยท $145 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.15 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PANW hits $135 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$575 (135.3%) on $425 risked, vs $-2,073 (-13.3%) for 100 shares on $15,573. Options give 10.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PANW is at $135. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PANW hits $135 by Jun 19
+$575
+135.3% on $425 risked
Max Profit
+$575
If the stock โค $145 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$425
Net debit
Break-even
$150.75
-3.2% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
49%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-12.14 / -0.3 / 1.1
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PANW Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $125 (-20%) | +$414 | +$459 | +$524 | +$575 |
| $132 (-15%) | +$328 | +$369 | +$444 | +$575 |
| $135 (-13%) โ target | +$295 | +$332 | +$404 | +$575 |
| $140 (-10%) | +$227 | +$253 | +$308 | +$575 |
| $148 (-5%) | +$119 | +$123 | +$133 | +$281 |
| $153 (-2%) | +$55 | +$45 | +$24 | -$187 |
| $156 (0%) โ spot | +$14 | -$5 | -$45 | -$425 |
| $159 (+2%) | -$26 | -$54 | -$109 | -$425 |
| $164 (+5%) | -$83 | -$121 | -$194 | -$425 |
| $171 (+10%) | -$167 | -$215 | -$299 | -$425 |
| $179 (+15%) | -$236 | -$287 | -$363 | -$425 |
| $187 (+20%) | -$290 | -$338 | -$397 | -$425 |
Uses PANW's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.