Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PANW hits $165 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$915 (6.7%) on $-915 credit (max loss $13,585), vs +$927 (6.0%) for 100 shares on $15,573. Options give 1.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PANW is at $165. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PANW Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $125 (-20%) | -$1,340 | -$1,243 | -$1,149 | -$1,127 |
| $132 (-15%) | -$803 | -$663 | -$496 | -$348 |
| $140 (-10%) | -$355 | -$187 | +$35 | +$431 |
| $148 (-5%) | +$2 | +$180 | +$417 | +$915 |
| $153 (-2%) | +$176 | +$352 | +$579 | +$915 |
| $156 (0%) โ spot | +$276 | +$447 | +$661 | +$915 |
| $159 (+2%) | +$365 | +$529 | +$726 | +$915 |
| $165 (+6%) โ target | +$511 | +$656 | +$815 | +$915 |
| $171 (+10%) | +$625 | +$748 | +$866 | +$915 |
| $179 (+15%) | +$726 | +$820 | +$896 | +$915 |
| $187 (+20%) | +$794 | +$863 | +$908 | +$915 |