Target Price Playground
PANW
$155.73
๐ข
PANW IV: 42.1% โ LOW
(-25.7% vs 30d avg of 56.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $170 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $155.73 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $170 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.95 ยท ฮ 0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PANW hits $170 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$2,122 (14.3%) on $14,878 risked, vs +$1,427 (9.2%) for 100 shares on $15,573. Options give 1.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PANW is at $170. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PANW hits $170 by Jun 19
+$2,122
+14.3% on $14,878 risked
Max Profit
+$2,122
If the stock โฅ $170 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$14,878
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$148.78
-4.46% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.23 / 9.11 / -24.5
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PANW Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $125 (-20%) | -$2,486 | -$2,442 | -$2,421 | -$2,420 |
| $132 (-15%) | -$1,779 | -$1,700 | -$1,649 | -$1,641 |
| $140 (-10%) | -$1,120 | -$997 | -$893 | -$862 |
| $148 (-5%) | -$524 | -$353 | -$179 | -$84 |
| $153 (-2%) | -$199 | -$2 | +$217 | +$384 |
| $156 (0%) โ spot | +$2 | +$214 | +$461 | +$695 |
| $159 (+2%) | +$190 | +$416 | +$688 | +$1,006 |
| $164 (+5%) | +$451 | +$692 | +$994 | +$1,474 |
| $170 (+9%) โ target | +$765 | +$1,019 | +$1,342 | +$2,122 |
| $179 (+15%) | +$1,121 | +$1,373 | +$1,684 | +$2,122 |
| $187 (+20%) | +$1,355 | +$1,591 | +$1,864 | +$2,122 |
Uses PANW's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.