Target Price Playground
PANW
$161.59
๐ข
PANW IV: 42.1% โ LOW
(-24.7% vs 30d avg of 55.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $155 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $160 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.7 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $155 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.55 ยท ฮ -0.39
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PANW hits $155 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$722 (229.3%) on $315 risked, vs $-659 (-4.1%) for 100 shares on $16,159. Options give 55.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PANW is at $155. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PANW hits $155 by Jun 19
+$722
+229.3% on $315 risked
Max Profit
+$693
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$303
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$173.67
+7.48% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
83%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-5.38 / 1.79 / 5.78
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PANW Price | Today | May 6 | May 28 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $129 (-20%) | +$195 | +$209 | +$213 | +$162 |
| $137 (-15%) | +$199 | +$228 | +$264 | +$229 |
| $145 (-10%) | +$188 | +$228 | +$296 | +$376 |
| $155 (-4%) โ target | +$155 | +$196 | +$274 | +$699 |
| $158 (-2%) | +$139 | +$176 | +$250 | +$520 |
| $162 (0%) โ spot | +$121 | +$155 | +$219 | +$370 |
| $165 (+2%) | +$101 | +$130 | +$182 | +$240 |
| $170 (+5%) | +$70 | +$89 | +$119 | +$82 |
| $178 (+10%) | +$14 | +$17 | +$9 | -$101 |
| $186 (+15%) | -$43 | -$54 | -$91 | -$207 |
| $194 (+20%) | -$96 | -$118 | -$169 | -$264 |
Uses PANW's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.