Target Price Playground
PANW
$155.73
๐ข
PANW IV: 42.1% โ LOW
(-25.7% vs 30d avg of 56.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $135 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $155 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.4 ยท ฮ -0.47
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PANW hits $135 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$660 (49.3%) on $1,340 risked, vs $-2,073 (-13.3%) for 100 shares on $15,573. Options give 3.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PANW is at $135. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PANW hits $135 by Jun 19
+$660
+49.3% on $1,340 risked
Max Profit
+$14,160
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,340
Premium paid
Break-even
$141.60
-9.07% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
49%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-47.1 / -8.79 / 26.34
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PANW Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $125 (-20%) | +$1,754 | +$1,702 | +$1,674 | +$1,702 |
| $132 (-15%) | +$1,131 | +$1,032 | +$939 | +$923 |
| $135 (-13%) โ target | +$937 | +$822 | +$704 | +$660 |
| $140 (-10%) | +$582 | +$440 | +$273 | +$144 |
| $148 (-5%) | +$118 | -$57 | -$284 | -$634 |
| $153 (-2%) | -$121 | -$307 | -$554 | -$1,102 |
| $156 (0%) โ spot | -$262 | -$452 | -$706 | -$1,340 |
| $159 (+2%) | -$391 | -$582 | -$835 | -$1,340 |
| $164 (+5%) | -$563 | -$750 | -$991 | -$1,340 |
| $171 (+10%) | -$792 | -$963 | -$1,164 | -$1,340 |
| $179 (+15%) | -$961 | -$1,107 | -$1,259 | -$1,340 |
| $187 (+20%) | -$1,084 | -$1,201 | -$1,305 | -$1,340 |
Uses PANW's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.