Target Price Playground
PANW
$155.73
๐ข
PANW IV: 42.1% โ LOW
(-25.7% vs 30d avg of 56.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $170 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $155.73 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $150 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.99 ยท ฮ -0.41
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PANW hits $170 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$328 (2.0%) on $16,672 risked, vs +$1,427 (9.2%) for 100 shares on $15,573. Options give 0.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PANW is at $170. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PANW hits $170 by Jun 19
+$328
+2.0% on $16,672 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$1,672
Put floors you at $150
Break-even
$166.72
+7.06% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
59.05 / -8.75 / 25.8
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PANW Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $125 (-20%) | -$1,550 | -$1,624 | -$1,682 | -$1,672 |
| $132 (-15%) | -$1,354 | -$1,475 | -$1,605 | -$1,672 |
| $140 (-10%) | -$1,076 | -$1,234 | -$1,434 | -$1,672 |
| $148 (-5%) | -$709 | -$890 | -$1,130 | -$1,672 |
| $153 (-2%) | -$448 | -$633 | -$878 | -$1,410 |
| $156 (0%) โ spot | -$258 | -$442 | -$683 | -$1,099 |
| $159 (+2%) | -$56 | -$236 | -$467 | -$788 |
| $164 (+5%) | +$271 | +$99 | -$109 | -$320 |
| $170 (+9%) โ target | +$760 | +$608 | +$439 | +$328 |
| $179 (+15%) | +$1,509 | +$1,389 | +$1,278 | +$1,237 |
| $187 (+20%) | +$2,195 | +$2,103 | +$2,032 | +$2,016 |
Uses PANW's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.