Target Price Playground
PANW
$155.73
๐ข
PANW IV: 42.1% โ LOW
(-25.7% vs 30d avg of 56.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $180 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $155 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.0 ยท ฮ 0.53
LONG PUT ยท $155 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.4 ยท ฮ -0.47
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PANW hits $180 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-140 (-5.3%) on $2,640 risked, vs +$2,427 (15.6%) for 100 shares on $15,573. Options give 0.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PANW is at $180. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PANW hits $180 by Jun 19
$-140
-5.3% on $2,640 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$2,640
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$181.40
+16.48% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
41%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
6.34 / -19.18 / 52.68
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PANW Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $125 (-20%) | +$634 | +$488 | +$390 | +$402 |
| $132 (-15%) | +$166 | -$73 | -$301 | -$377 |
| $140 (-10%) | -$152 | -$479 | -$855 | -$1,156 |
| $148 (-5%) | -$303 | -$694 | -$1,191 | -$1,934 |
| $153 (-2%) | -$312 | -$726 | -$1,263 | -$2,402 |
| $156 (0%) โ spot | -$284 | -$706 | -$1,255 | -$2,567 |
| $159 (+2%) | -$231 | -$655 | -$1,203 | -$2,256 |
| $164 (+5%) | -$106 | -$522 | -$1,047 | -$1,788 |
| $171 (+10%) | +$214 | -$169 | -$615 | -$1,010 |
| $180 (+16%) โ target | +$712 | +$385 | +$52 | -$140 |
| $187 (+20%) | +$1,188 | +$911 | +$661 | +$548 |
Uses PANW's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.