Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder
PAR
$11.82
Forward Projection If price hits $11 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

๐Ÿ“‹ Strategy

Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.

๐ŸŽฏ Target

67d from today

โš™๏ธ Legs

LONG PUT ยท $12 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.65 ยท ฮ” -0.5
SHORT PUT ยท $11 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.24 ยท ฮ” -0.25
P&L at Expiry Now $12 Target $11 $8 $12 $15
Stock (100 sh) Bear Put Spread Now Target
๐Ÿ’ก Stock vs Options at Target

If PAR hits $11 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$59 (142.3%) on $41 risked, vs $-132 (-11.2%) for 100 shares on $1,182. Options give 12.7ร— capital efficiency.

๐Ÿ“… Expiry

Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PAR is at $11. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

๐Ÿ“Š Projected Return

P&L if PAR hits $11 by Jun 19
+$59
+142.3% on $41 risked
Max Profit
+$59
If the stock โ‰ค $11 at expiry
Max Loss
โˆ’$41
Net debit
Break-even
$11.59
-1.97% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
38%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ” / ฮ˜ / V
-24.99 / -0.05 / 0.43
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐Ÿ’พ Log in to save ๐Ÿ“Š My Saved Strategies

๐Ÿ“‹ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ€” ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โ‰ฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

๐Ÿ“Š P&L Scenarios โ€” what happens at different prices and dates

PAR Price Today May 5 May 27 Jun 19 (exp)
$9 (-20%) +$51 +$55 +$58 +$59
$10 (-15%) +$43 +$48 +$54 +$59
$11 (-11%) โ† target +$34 +$38 +$46 +$59
$11 (-10%) +$31 +$35 +$42 +$59
$11 (-5%) +$16 +$17 +$20 +$36
$12 (-2%) +$6 +$6 +$5 +$1
$12 (0%) โ† spot +$0 -$1 -$5 -$23
$12 (+2%) -$6 -$8 -$14 -$41
$12 (+5%) -$13 -$17 -$24 -$41
$13 (+10%) -$24 -$28 -$35 -$41
$14 (+15%) -$31 -$35 -$39 -$41
$14 (+20%) -$36 -$38 -$41 -$41
Uses PAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.