Target Price Playground
PAR
$11.82
Forward Projection
If price hits $13 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
SHORT PUT ยท $11 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.24 ยท ฮ -0.25
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Cash-Secured Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PAR hits $13 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$24 (2.2%) on $-24 credit (max loss $1,076), vs +$68 (5.8%) for 100 shares on $1,182. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PAR is at $13. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PAR hits $13 by Jun 19
+$24
+2.2% on $1,076 max loss
Max Profit
+$24
If the stock โฅ $11 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,076
If stock โ $0 after assignment
Break-even
$10.76
-8.94% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
65%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
24.58 / 0.32 / -1.59
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PAR Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $9 (-20%) | -$130 | -$128 | -$128 | -$130 |
| $10 (-15%) | -$83 | -$78 | -$73 | -$71 |
| $11 (-10%) | -$46 | -$38 | -$28 | -$12 |
| $11 (-5%) | -$18 | -$9 | +$2 | +$24 |
| $12 (-2%) | -$6 | +$2 | +$12 | +$24 |
| $12 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$8 | +$17 | +$24 |
| $12 (+2%) | +$6 | +$12 | +$20 | +$24 |
| $13 (+6%) โ target | +$13 | +$18 | +$23 | +$24 |
| $13 (+10%) | +$18 | +$21 | +$24 | +$24 |
| $14 (+15%) | +$21 | +$23 | +$24 | +$24 |
| $14 (+20%) | +$23 | +$24 | +$24 | +$24 |
Uses PAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.