Target Price Playground
PAR
$11.82
Forward Projection
If price hits $13 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $11.82 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $11 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.24 ยท ฮ -0.25
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PAR hits $13 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$94 (7.8%) on $1,206 risked, vs +$118 (10.0%) for 100 shares on $1,182. Options give 0.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PAR is at $13. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PAR hits $13 by Jun 19
+$94
+7.8% on $1,206 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$106
Put floors you at $11
Break-even
$12.06
+2.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
44%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
75.42 / -0.32 / 1.59
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PAR Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $9 (-20%) | -$106 | -$108 | -$108 | -$106 |
| $10 (-15%) | -$94 | -$99 | -$104 | -$106 |
| $11 (-10%) | -$72 | -$80 | -$90 | -$106 |
| $11 (-5%) | -$41 | -$50 | -$61 | -$83 |
| $12 (-2%) | -$18 | -$26 | -$36 | -$48 |
| $12 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$8 | -$17 | -$24 |
| $12 (+2%) | +$18 | +$12 | +$4 | +$0 |
| $12 (+5%) | +$47 | +$42 | +$37 | +$35 |
| $13 (+10%) โ target | +$100 | +$97 | +$94 | +$94 |
| $14 (+15%) | +$156 | +$154 | +$153 | +$153 |
| $14 (+20%) | +$213 | +$212 | +$212 | +$212 |
Uses PAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.