Target Price Playground
PATH
$9.38
๐ข
PATH IV: 68.5% โ LOW
(-33.2% vs 30d avg of 102.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $11 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $10 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.08 ยท ฮ 0.55
SHORT CALL ยท $10 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.96 ยท ฮ 0.49
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PATH hits $11 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$38 (329.4%) on $12 risked, vs +$112 (11.9%) for 100 shares on $938. Options give 27.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PATH is at $11. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PATH hits $11 by Jun 19
+$38
+329.4% on $12 risked
Max Profit
+$38
If the stock โฅ $10 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$12
Net debit
Break-even
$9.62
+2.52% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
68%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
6.43 / 0.03 / -0.06
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PATH Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $8 (-20%) | -$4 | -$6 | -$9 | -$12 |
| $8 (-15%) | -$2 | -$3 | -$7 | -$12 |
| $8 (-10%) | +$1 | +$0 | -$3 | -$12 |
| $9 (-5%) | +$5 | +$4 | +$2 | -$12 |
| $9 (-2%) | +$7 | +$6 | +$5 | -$12 |
| $9 (0%) โ spot | +$8 | +$8 | +$7 | -$12 |
| $10 (+2%) | +$9 | +$9 | +$9 | -$5 |
| $10 (+5%) | +$11 | +$12 | +$13 | +$23 |
| $10 (+10%) | +$14 | +$16 | +$18 | +$38 |
| $11 (+12%) โ target | +$15 | +$17 | +$20 | +$38 |
| $11 (+15%) | +$17 | +$19 | +$23 | +$38 |
| $11 (+20%) | +$20 | +$22 | +$27 | +$38 |
Uses PATH's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.