Target Price Playground
PATH
$9.38
๐ข
PATH IV: 68.5% โ LOW
(-33.2% vs 30d avg of 102.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $10 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
SHORT PUT ยท $9 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.63 ยท ฮ -0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Cash-Secured Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PATH hits $10 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$63 (8.0%) on $-63 credit (max loss $787), vs +$62 (6.6%) for 100 shares on $938. Options give 1.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PATH is at $10. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PATH hits $10 by Jun 19
+$63
+8.0% on $787 max loss
Max Profit
+$63
If the stock โฅ $8 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$787
If stock โ $0 after assignment
Break-even
$7.87
-16.12% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
82%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
30.49 / 0.68 / -1.41
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PATH Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $8 (-20%) | -$84 | -$70 | -$54 | -$37 |
| $8 (-15%) | -$57 | -$42 | -$22 | +$10 |
| $8 (-10%) | -$35 | -$19 | +$3 | +$57 |
| $9 (-5%) | -$16 | +$1 | +$23 | +$63 |
| $9 (-2%) | -$6 | +$10 | +$32 | +$63 |
| $9 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$16 | +$37 | +$63 |
| $10 (+2%) | +$5 | +$21 | +$41 | +$63 |
| $10 (+5%) | +$13 | +$28 | +$46 | +$63 |
| $10 (+7%) โ target | +$16 | +$31 | +$49 | +$63 |
| $10 (+10%) | +$23 | +$37 | +$53 | +$63 |
| $11 (+15%) | +$32 | +$44 | +$57 | +$63 |
| $11 (+20%) | +$39 | +$50 | +$60 | +$63 |
Uses PATH's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.