Target Price Playground
PATH
$9.38
๐ข
PATH IV: 68.5% โ LOW
(-33.2% vs 30d avg of 102.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $10 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $9.38 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $10 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.96 ยท ฮ 0.49
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PATH hits $10 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$158 (18.8%) on $842 risked, vs +$62 (6.6%) for 100 shares on $938. Options give 2.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PATH is at $10. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PATH hits $10 by Jun 19
+$158
+18.8% on $842 risked
Max Profit
+$158
If the stock โฅ $10 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$842
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$8.42
-10.23% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
82%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
51.19 / 0.9 / -1.65
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PATH Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $8 (-20%) | -$115 | -$104 | -$95 | -$92 |
| $8 (-15%) | -$79 | -$66 | -$52 | -$45 |
| $8 (-10%) | -$47 | -$30 | -$12 | +$2 |
| $9 (-5%) | -$18 | +$1 | +$24 | +$49 |
| $9 (-2%) | -$2 | +$18 | +$43 | +$77 |
| $9 (0%) โ spot | +$8 | +$29 | +$55 | +$96 |
| $10 (+2%) | +$18 | +$39 | +$66 | +$115 |
| $10 (+5%) | +$31 | +$53 | +$81 | +$143 |
| $10 (+7%) โ target | +$38 | +$60 | +$88 | +$158 |
| $10 (+10%) | +$51 | +$73 | +$102 | +$158 |
| $11 (+15%) | +$68 | +$90 | +$118 | +$158 |
| $11 (+20%) | +$82 | +$104 | +$129 | +$158 |
Uses PATH's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.