Target Price Playground
PATH
$9.38
๐ข
PATH IV: 68.5% โ LOW
(-33.2% vs 30d avg of 102.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $9 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $10 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.12 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PATH hits $9 by Jun 19: the long put returns $-12 (-10.6%) on $112 risked, vs $-88 (-9.4%) for 100 shares on $938. Options give 1.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PATH is at $9. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PATH hits $9 by Jun 19
$-12
-10.6% on $112 risked
Max Profit
+$838
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$112
Premium paid
Break-even
$8.38
-10.64% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
75%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-44.76 / -0.75 / 1.59
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PATH Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $8 (-20%) | +$111 | +$101 | +$91 | +$88 |
| $8 (-15%) | +$78 | +$65 | +$51 | +$41 |
| $9 (-9%) โ target | +$45 | +$29 | +$10 | -$12 |
| $9 (-5%) | +$22 | +$5 | -$17 | -$53 |
| $9 (-2%) | +$9 | -$9 | -$33 | -$81 |
| $9 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$18 | -$43 | -$100 |
| $10 (+2%) | -$8 | -$27 | -$51 | -$112 |
| $10 (+5%) | -$20 | -$38 | -$63 | -$112 |
| $10 (+10%) | -$36 | -$55 | -$78 | -$112 |
| $11 (+15%) | -$50 | -$68 | -$89 | -$112 |
| $11 (+20%) | -$62 | -$78 | -$97 | -$112 |
Uses PATH's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.