Target Price Playground
PATH
$9.38
๐ข
PATH IV: 68.5% โ LOW
(-33.2% vs 30d avg of 102.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $11 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $9.38 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $9 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.95 ยท ฮ -0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PATH hits $11 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$17 (1.6%) on $1,033 risked, vs +$112 (11.9%) for 100 shares on $938. Options give 0.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PATH is at $11. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PATH hits $11 by Jun 19
+$17
+1.6% on $1,033 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$133
Put floors you at $9
Break-even
$10.33
+10.13% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
68%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
61.66 / -0.78 / 1.55
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PATH Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $8 (-20%) | -$100 | -$112 | -$125 | -$133 |
| $8 (-15%) | -$82 | -$97 | -$114 | -$133 |
| $8 (-10%) | -$62 | -$78 | -$99 | -$133 |
| $9 (-5%) | -$37 | -$54 | -$77 | -$133 |
| $9 (-2%) | -$21 | -$39 | -$62 | -$114 |
| $9 (0%) โ spot | -$9 | -$27 | -$50 | -$95 |
| $10 (+2%) | +$3 | -$15 | -$38 | -$76 |
| $10 (+5%) | +$21 | +$4 | -$18 | -$48 |
| $10 (+10%) | +$55 | +$38 | +$18 | -$1 |
| $11 (+12%) โ target | +$68 | +$52 | +$33 | +$17 |
| $11 (+15%) | +$91 | +$75 | +$58 | +$46 |
| $11 (+20%) | +$129 | +$115 | +$101 | +$93 |
Uses PATH's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.