Target Price Playground
PATH
$9.38
๐ข
PATH IV: 68.5% โ LOW
(-33.2% vs 30d avg of 102.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $11 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $10 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.08 ยท ฮ 0.55
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PATH hits $11 by Jun 19: the long call returns $-8 (-7.1%) on $108 risked, vs +$112 (11.9%) for 100 shares on $938. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PATH is at $11. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PATH hits $11 by Jun 19
$-8
-7.1% on $108 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$108
Premium paid
Break-even
$10.58
+12.76% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
68%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
55.24 / -0.86 / 1.59
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PATH Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $8 (-20%) | -$77 | -$90 | -$102 | -$108 |
| $8 (-15%) | -$63 | -$79 | -$96 | -$108 |
| $8 (-10%) | -$46 | -$64 | -$85 | -$108 |
| $9 (-5%) | -$25 | -$44 | -$69 | -$108 |
| $9 (-2%) | -$11 | -$31 | -$57 | -$108 |
| $9 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$21 | -$48 | -$108 |
| $10 (+2%) | +$10 | -$11 | -$38 | -$101 |
| $10 (+5%) | +$27 | +$6 | -$21 | -$73 |
| $10 (+10%) | +$58 | +$37 | +$10 | -$26 |
| $11 (+12%) โ target | +$70 | +$49 | +$24 | -$8 |
| $11 (+15%) | +$91 | +$70 | +$46 | +$21 |
| $11 (+20%) | +$126 | +$107 | +$85 | +$68 |
Uses PATH's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.