Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PCOR hits $50 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$220 (5.4%) on $-220 credit (max loss $4,080), vs +$281 (6.0%) for 100 shares on $4,719. Options give 0.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PCOR is at $50. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PCOR Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $38 (-20%) | -$441 | -$395 | -$342 | -$305 |
| $40 (-15%) | -$296 | -$239 | -$167 | -$69 |
| $42 (-10%) | -$176 | -$113 | -$29 | +$167 |
| $45 (-5%) | -$78 | -$13 | +$71 | +$220 |
| $46 (-2%) | -$29 | +$34 | +$114 | +$220 |
| $47 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$61 | +$136 | +$220 |
| $48 (+2%) | +$25 | +$84 | +$155 | +$220 |
| $50 (+6%) โ target | +$69 | +$123 | +$181 | +$220 |
| $52 (+10%) | +$105 | +$152 | +$198 | +$220 |
| $54 (+15%) | +$138 | +$177 | +$210 | +$220 |
| $57 (+20%) | +$163 | +$193 | +$215 | +$220 |