Target Price Playground
PEGA
$39.37
๐ข
PEGA IV: 56.8% โ LOW
(-28.8% vs 30d avg of 79.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $35 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $39 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.61 ยท ฮ -0.42
SHORT PUT ยท $36 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.23 ยท ฮ -0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PEGA hits $35 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$163 (118.7%) on $137 risked, vs $-437 (-11.1%) for 100 shares on $3,937. Options give 10.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PEGA is at $35. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PEGA hits $35 by Jun 19
+$163
+118.7% on $137 risked
Max Profit
+$163
If the stock โค $36 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$137
Net debit
Break-even
$37.63
-4.42% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
66%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-11.77 / -0.23 / 0.7
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PEGA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $32 (-20%) | +$94 | +$106 | +$127 | +$162 |
| $33 (-15%) | +$72 | +$81 | +$99 | +$162 |
| $35 (-11%) โ target | +$53 | +$58 | +$70 | +$162 |
| $35 (-10%) | +$48 | +$52 | +$61 | +$162 |
| $37 (-5%) | +$23 | +$22 | +$20 | +$22 |
| $39 (-2%) | +$9 | +$4 | -$5 | -$96 |
| $39 (0%) โ spot | -$1 | -$7 | -$20 | -$138 |
| $40 (+2%) | -$10 | -$18 | -$35 | -$138 |
| $41 (+5%) | -$23 | -$34 | -$55 | -$138 |
| $43 (+10%) | -$43 | -$57 | -$83 | -$138 |
| $45 (+15%) | -$61 | -$77 | -$104 | -$138 |
| $47 (+20%) | -$76 | -$93 | -$117 | -$138 |
Uses PEGA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.