Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PEGA hits $41 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$223 (6.6%) on $-223 credit (max loss $3,377), vs +$163 (4.1%) for 100 shares on $3,937. Options give 1.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PEGA is at $41. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PEGA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $32 (-20%) | -$367 | -$322 | -$269 | -$227 |
| $33 (-15%) | -$250 | -$196 | -$127 | -$31 |
| $35 (-10%) | -$150 | -$91 | -$13 | +$166 |
| $37 (-5%) | -$68 | -$7 | +$73 | +$223 |
| $39 (-2%) | -$26 | +$34 | +$111 | +$223 |
| $39 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$58 | +$132 | +$223 |
| $40 (+2%) | +$23 | +$80 | +$150 | +$223 |
| $41 (+4%) โ target | +$45 | +$100 | +$165 | +$223 |
| $43 (+10%) | +$95 | +$143 | +$194 | +$223 |
| $45 (+15%) | +$128 | +$169 | +$208 | +$223 |
| $47 (+20%) | +$152 | +$187 | +$215 | +$223 |