Target Price Playground
PEGA
$39.37
๐ข
PEGA IV: 56.8% โ LOW
(-28.8% vs 30d avg of 79.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $43 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $39.37 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $43 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.71 ยท ฮ 0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PEGA hits $43 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$634 (17.3%) on $3,666 risked, vs +$363 (9.2%) for 100 shares on $3,937. Options give 1.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PEGA is at $43. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PEGA hits $43 by Jun 19
+$634
+17.3% on $3,666 risked
Max Profit
+$634
If the stock โฅ $43 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$3,666
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$36.66
-6.87% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
72%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
57.45 / 3.1 / -6.61
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PEGA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $32 (-20%) | -$569 | -$540 | -$520 | -$516 |
| $33 (-15%) | -$406 | -$366 | -$331 | -$320 |
| $35 (-10%) | -$256 | -$203 | -$150 | -$123 |
| $37 (-5%) | -$120 | -$56 | +$16 | +$74 |
| $39 (-2%) | -$46 | +$24 | +$107 | +$192 |
| $39 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$74 | +$164 | +$271 |
| $40 (+2%) | +$45 | +$121 | +$216 | +$350 |
| $41 (+5%) | +$106 | +$186 | +$288 | +$468 |
| $43 (+9%) โ target | +$184 | +$267 | +$373 | +$634 |
| $45 (+15%) | +$274 | +$358 | +$463 | +$634 |
| $47 (+20%) | +$338 | +$420 | +$518 | +$634 |
Uses PEGA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.