Target Price Playground
PEGA
$39.37
๐ข
PEGA IV: 56.8% โ LOW
(-28.8% vs 30d avg of 79.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $37 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $39 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.28 ยท ฮ -0.41
SHORT PUT ยท $37 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.65 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PEGA hits $37 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$189 (116.2%) on $163 risked, vs $-237 (-6.0%) for 100 shares on $3,937. Options give 19.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PEGA is at $37. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PEGA hits $37 by Jun 19
+$189
+116.2% on $163 risked
Max Profit
+$189
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$149
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$41.15
+4.53% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
81%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-6.94 / 0.36 / 1.62
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PEGA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $32 (-20%) | +$35 | +$46 | +$58 | +$51 |
| $33 (-15%) | +$31 | +$44 | +$64 | +$82 |
| $35 (-10%) | +$23 | +$37 | +$61 | +$132 |
| $37 (-6%) โ target | +$15 | +$28 | +$52 | +$189 |
| $37 (-5%) | +$13 | +$25 | +$49 | +$166 |
| $39 (-2%) | +$5 | +$17 | +$37 | +$105 |
| $39 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$10 | +$28 | +$68 |
| $40 (+2%) | -$6 | +$3 | +$18 | +$36 |
| $41 (+5%) | -$14 | -$8 | +$2 | -$6 |
| $43 (+10%) | -$30 | -$27 | -$27 | -$60 |
| $45 (+15%) | -$45 | -$47 | -$55 | -$98 |
| $47 (+20%) | -$60 | -$65 | -$80 | -$123 |
Uses PEGA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.