Target Price Playground
PEGA
$39.37
๐ข
PEGA IV: 56.8% โ LOW
(-28.8% vs 30d avg of 79.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $35 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $39 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.61 ยท ฮ -0.42
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PEGA hits $35 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$39 (10.9%) on $361 risked, vs $-437 (-11.1%) for 100 shares on $3,937. Options give 1.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PEGA is at $35. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PEGA hits $35 by Jun 19
+$39
+10.9% on $361 risked
Max Profit
+$3,539
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$361
Premium paid
Break-even
$35.39
-10.1% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
66%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-42.2 / -2.67 / 6.6
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PEGA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $32 (-20%) | +$461 | +$428 | +$396 | +$389 |
| $33 (-15%) | +$322 | +$276 | +$226 | +$193 |
| $35 (-11%) โ target | +$223 | +$170 | +$105 | +$39 |
| $35 (-10%) | +$198 | +$143 | +$74 | -$4 |
| $37 (-5%) | +$91 | +$29 | -$53 | -$201 |
| $39 (-2%) | +$34 | -$30 | -$116 | -$319 |
| $39 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$66 | -$152 | -$361 |
| $40 (+2%) | -$33 | -$98 | -$185 | -$361 |
| $41 (+5%) | -$76 | -$141 | -$226 | -$361 |
| $43 (+10%) | -$138 | -$201 | -$277 | -$361 |
| $45 (+15%) | -$189 | -$246 | -$311 | -$361 |
| $47 (+20%) | -$228 | -$279 | -$333 | -$361 |
Uses PEGA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.