Target Price Playground
PEGA
$39.37
๐ข
PEGA IV: 56.8% โ LOW
(-28.8% vs 30d avg of 79.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $43 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $39.37 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $37 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.65 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PEGA hits $43 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$98 (2.3%) on $4,202 risked, vs +$363 (9.2%) for 100 shares on $3,937. Options give 0.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PEGA is at $43. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PEGA hits $43 by Jun 19
+$98
+2.3% on $4,202 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$502
Put floors you at $37
Break-even
$42.02
+6.73% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
72%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
65.69 / -2.54 / 6.2
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PEGA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $32 (-20%) | -$388 | -$429 | -$475 | -$502 |
| $33 (-15%) | -$317 | -$368 | -$432 | -$502 |
| $35 (-10%) | -$228 | -$287 | -$363 | -$502 |
| $37 (-5%) | -$122 | -$184 | -$266 | -$462 |
| $39 (-2%) | -$51 | -$113 | -$195 | -$344 |
| $39 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$62 | -$142 | -$265 |
| $40 (+2%) | +$53 | -$8 | -$85 | -$186 |
| $41 (+5%) | +$136 | +$78 | +$6 | -$68 |
| $43 (+9%) โ target | +$261 | +$206 | +$145 | +$98 |
| $45 (+15%) | +$444 | +$397 | +$349 | +$326 |
| $47 (+20%) | +$610 | +$570 | +$534 | +$522 |
Uses PEGA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.