Target Price Playground
PEGA
$39.37
๐ข
PEGA IV: 56.8% โ LOW
(-28.8% vs 30d avg of 79.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $45 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $39 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.3 ยท ฮ 0.58
LONG PUT ยท $39 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.61 ยท ฮ -0.42
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PEGA hits $45 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-190 (-24.1%) on $790 risked, vs +$563 (14.3%) for 100 shares on $3,937. Options give 1.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PEGA is at $45. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PEGA hits $45 by Jun 19
$-190
-24.1% on $790 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$790
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$46.90
+19.13% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
57%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
15.59 / -5.82 / 13.2
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PEGA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $32 (-20%) | +$136 | +$58 | -$15 | -$41 |
| $33 (-15%) | +$52 | -$49 | -$161 | -$237 |
| $35 (-10%) | +$2 | -$119 | -$267 | -$434 |
| $37 (-5%) | -$16 | -$150 | -$323 | -$631 |
| $39 (-2%) | -$11 | -$150 | -$331 | -$749 |
| $39 (0%) โ spot | -$1 | -$142 | -$325 | -$754 |
| $40 (+2%) | +$14 | -$128 | -$311 | -$675 |
| $41 (+5%) | +$45 | -$96 | -$276 | -$557 |
| $43 (+10%) | +$117 | -$18 | -$182 | -$360 |
| $45 (+14%) โ target | +$199 | +$72 | -$73 | -$191 |
| $47 (+20%) | +$330 | +$218 | +$101 | +$33 |
Uses PEGA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.