Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PG hits $150 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$237 (1.8%) on $-237 credit (max loss $13,263), vs +$484 (3.3%) for 100 shares on $14,516. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PG is at $150. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PG Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $116 (-20%) | -$1,581 | -$1,591 | -$1,613 | -$1,650 |
| $123 (-15%) | -$960 | -$931 | -$908 | -$924 |
| $131 (-10%) | -$465 | -$398 | -$310 | -$199 |
| $138 (-5%) | -$124 | -$46 | +$58 | +$237 |
| $142 (-2%) | +$10 | +$79 | +$163 | +$237 |
| $145 (0%) โ spot | +$75 | +$135 | +$200 | +$237 |
| $148 (+2%) | +$123 | +$173 | +$219 | +$237 |
| $150 (+3%) โ target | +$149 | +$191 | +$227 | +$237 |
| $152 (+5%) | +$173 | +$207 | +$232 | +$237 |
| $160 (+10%) | +$215 | +$230 | +$237 | +$237 |
| $167 (+15%) | +$230 | +$236 | +$237 | +$237 |
| $174 (+20%) | +$235 | +$237 | +$237 | +$237 |