Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PLTR hits $135 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$975 (8.8%) on $-975 credit (max loss $11,025), vs +$694 (5.4%) for 100 shares on $12,806. Options give 1.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PLTR is at $135. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PLTR Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $102 (-20%) | -$1,156 | -$1,020 | -$870 | -$780 |
| $109 (-15%) | -$750 | -$582 | -$373 | -$140 |
| $115 (-10%) | -$401 | -$211 | +$39 | +$500 |
| $122 (-5%) | -$108 | +$93 | +$358 | +$975 |
| $126 (-2%) | +$43 | +$243 | +$506 | +$975 |
| $128 (0%) โ spot | +$133 | +$332 | +$588 | +$975 |
| $131 (+2%) | +$216 | +$412 | +$659 | +$975 |
| $135 (+5%) โ target | +$342 | +$529 | +$755 | +$975 |
| $141 (+10%) | +$483 | +$653 | +$844 | +$975 |
| $147 (+15%) | +$604 | +$753 | +$903 | +$975 |
| $154 (+20%) | +$697 | +$825 | +$937 | +$975 |