Target Price Playground
PM
$160.45
๐ข
PM IV: 10.8% โ LOW
(-81.1% vs 30d avg of 56.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $180 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $160 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.5 ยท ฮ 0.54
SHORT CALL ยท $175 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.0 ยท ฮ 0.4
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PM hits $180 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$950 (172.7%) on $550 risked, vs +$1,955 (12.2%) for 100 shares on $16,045. Options give 14.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PM is at $180. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PM hits $180 by Jun 19
+$950
+172.7% on $550 risked
Max Profit
+$950
If the stock โฅ $175 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$550
Net debit
Break-even
$165.50
+3.15% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
5%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
14.01 / 4.16 / 2.26
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $128 (-20%) | -$550 | -$550 | -$550 | -$550 |
| $136 (-15%) | -$548 | -$550 | -$550 | -$550 |
| $144 (-10%) | -$523 | -$541 | -$549 | -$550 |
| $152 (-5%) | -$404 | -$461 | -$521 | -$550 |
| $157 (-2%) | -$249 | -$319 | -$416 | -$550 |
| $160 (0%) โ spot | -$109 | -$173 | -$270 | -$505 |
| $164 (+2%) | +$51 | +$7 | -$63 | -$184 |
| $168 (+5%) | +$301 | +$301 | +$304 | +$297 |
| $177 (+10%) | +$651 | +$700 | +$777 | +$950 |
| $180 (+12%) โ target | +$754 | +$805 | +$874 | +$950 |
| $185 (+15%) | +$843 | +$884 | +$927 | +$950 |
| $193 (+20%) | +$915 | +$933 | +$945 | +$950 |
Uses PM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.