Target Price Playground
PM
$160.45
๐ข
PM IV: 10.8% โ LOW
(-81.1% vs 30d avg of 56.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $140 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $160 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.1 ยท ฮ -0.46
SHORT PUT ยท $150 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.35 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PM hits $140 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$625 (166.7%) on $375 risked, vs $-2,045 (-12.7%) for 100 shares on $16,045. Options give 13.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PM is at $140. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PM hits $140 by Jun 19
+$625
+166.7% on $375 risked
Max Profit
+$625
If the stock โค $150 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$375
Net debit
Break-even
$156.25
-2.62% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
4%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-12.13 / 3.76 / 1.06
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $128 (-20%) | +$614 | +$619 | +$622 | +$625 |
| $136 (-15%) | +$586 | +$608 | +$621 | +$625 |
| $140 (-13%) โ target | +$545 | +$582 | +$615 | +$625 |
| $144 (-10%) | +$455 | +$508 | +$574 | +$625 |
| $152 (-5%) | +$183 | +$211 | +$259 | +$382 |
| $157 (-2%) | -$3 | -$11 | -$32 | -$99 |
| $160 (0%) โ spot | -$112 | -$138 | -$189 | -$375 |
| $164 (+2%) | -$200 | -$235 | -$291 | -$375 |
| $168 (+5%) | -$291 | -$321 | -$357 | -$375 |
| $177 (+10%) | -$357 | -$368 | -$374 | -$375 |
| $185 (+15%) | -$372 | -$375 | -$375 | -$375 |
| $193 (+20%) | -$375 | -$375 | -$375 | -$375 |
Uses PM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.