Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PM hits $170 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$435 (3.0%) on $-435 credit (max loss $14,565), vs +$955 (6.0%) for 100 shares on $16,045. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PM is at $170. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $128 (-20%) | -$1,608 | -$1,646 | -$1,687 | -$1,729 |
| $136 (-15%) | -$837 | -$856 | -$886 | -$927 |
| $144 (-10%) | -$189 | -$161 | -$130 | -$124 |
| $152 (-5%) | +$214 | +$262 | +$328 | +$435 |
| $157 (-2%) | +$336 | +$373 | +$413 | +$435 |
| $160 (0%) โ spot | +$382 | +$407 | +$429 | +$435 |
| $164 (+2%) | +$408 | +$424 | +$434 | +$435 |
| $170 (+6%) โ target | +$429 | +$434 | +$435 | +$435 |
| $177 (+10%) | +$434 | +$435 | +$435 | +$435 |
| $185 (+15%) | +$435 | +$435 | +$435 | +$435 |
| $193 (+20%) | +$435 | +$435 | +$435 | +$435 |