Target Price Playground
PM
$160.45
๐ข
PM IV: 10.8% โ LOW
(-81.1% vs 30d avg of 56.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $175 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $160.45 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $175 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.0 ยท ฮ 0.4
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PM hits $175 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$1,755 (11.1%) on $15,745 risked, vs +$1,455 (9.1%) for 100 shares on $16,045. Options give 1.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PM is at $175. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PM hits $175 by Jun 19
+$1,755
+11.1% on $15,745 risked
Max Profit
+$1,755
If the stock โฅ $175 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$15,745
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$157.45
-1.87% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
15%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
59.8 / 11.37 / -24.67
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $128 (-20%) | -$2,909 | -$2,909 | -$2,909 | -$2,909 |
| $136 (-15%) | -$2,107 | -$2,107 | -$2,107 | -$2,107 |
| $144 (-10%) | -$1,304 | -$1,304 | -$1,304 | -$1,304 |
| $152 (-5%) | -$509 | -$503 | -$502 | -$502 |
| $157 (-2%) | -$46 | -$29 | -$21 | -$21 |
| $160 (0%) โ spot | +$248 | +$279 | +$298 | +$300 |
| $164 (+2%) | +$522 | +$572 | +$611 | +$621 |
| $168 (+5%) | +$882 | +$962 | +$1,045 | +$1,102 |
| $175 (+9%) โ target | +$1,244 | +$1,347 | +$1,474 | +$1,755 |
| $185 (+15%) | +$1,514 | +$1,600 | +$1,687 | +$1,755 |
| $193 (+20%) | +$1,588 | +$1,650 | +$1,705 | +$1,755 |
Uses PM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.