Target Price Playground
PM
$160.45
๐ข
PM IV: 10.8% โ LOW
(-81.1% vs 30d avg of 56.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $180 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $160 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.5 ยท ฮ 0.54
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PM hits $180 by Jun 19: the long call returns +$1,150 (135.3%) on $850 risked, vs +$1,955 (12.2%) for 100 shares on $16,045. Options give 11.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PM is at $180. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PM hits $180 by Jun 19
+$1,150
+135.3% on $850 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$850
Premium paid
Break-even
$168.50
+5.02% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
5%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
54.22 / -7.21 / 26.93
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $128 (-20%) | -$850 | -$850 | -$850 | -$850 |
| $136 (-15%) | -$848 | -$850 | -$850 | -$850 |
| $144 (-10%) | -$823 | -$841 | -$849 | -$850 |
| $152 (-5%) | -$697 | -$760 | -$821 | -$850 |
| $157 (-2%) | -$524 | -$611 | -$716 | -$850 |
| $160 (0%) โ spot | -$357 | -$452 | -$568 | -$805 |
| $164 (+2%) | -$151 | -$244 | -$353 | -$484 |
| $168 (+5%) | +$221 | +$142 | +$61 | -$3 |
| $177 (+10%) | +$951 | +$895 | +$846 | +$800 |
| $180 (+12%) โ target | +$1,290 | +$1,241 | +$1,195 | +$1,150 |
| $185 (+15%) | +$1,736 | +$1,691 | +$1,647 | +$1,602 |
| $193 (+20%) | +$2,536 | +$2,493 | +$2,449 | +$2,404 |
Uses PM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.