Target Price Playground
PM
$160.45
๐ข
PM IV: 10.8% โ LOW
(-81.1% vs 30d avg of 56.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $140 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $160 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.1 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PM hits $140 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$1,190 (146.9%) on $810 risked, vs $-2,045 (-12.7%) for 100 shares on $16,045. Options give 11.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PM is at $140. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PM hits $140 by Jun 19
+$1,190
+146.9% on $810 risked
Max Profit
+$15,190
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$810
Premium paid
Break-even
$151.90
-5.33% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
4%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-45.83 / -6.16 / 26.95
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $128 (-20%) | +$2,222 | +$2,265 | +$2,309 | +$2,354 |
| $136 (-15%) | +$1,423 | +$1,464 | +$1,507 | +$1,552 |
| $140 (-13%) โ target | +$1,066 | +$1,103 | +$1,145 | +$1,190 |
| $144 (-10%) | +$645 | +$669 | +$704 | +$749 |
| $152 (-5%) | -$31 | -$52 | -$69 | -$53 |
| $157 (-2%) | -$339 | -$384 | -$445 | -$534 |
| $160 (0%) โ spot | -$494 | -$545 | -$618 | -$810 |
| $164 (+2%) | -$608 | -$658 | -$724 | -$810 |
| $168 (+5%) | -$717 | -$754 | -$792 | -$810 |
| $177 (+10%) | -$791 | -$803 | -$809 | -$810 |
| $185 (+15%) | -$807 | -$810 | -$810 | -$810 |
| $193 (+20%) | -$810 | -$810 | -$810 | -$810 |
Uses PM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.