Target Price Playground
PM
$160.45
๐ข
PM IV: 10.8% โ LOW
(-81.1% vs 30d avg of 56.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $175 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $160.45 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $150 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.35 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PM hits $175 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$1,020 (6.2%) on $16,480 risked, vs +$1,455 (9.1%) for 100 shares on $16,045. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PM is at $175. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PM hits $175 by Jun 19
+$1,020
+6.2% on $16,480 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$1,480
Put floors you at $150
Break-even
$164.80
+2.71% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
15%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
66.3 / -9.92 / 25.89
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $128 (-20%) | -$1,601 | -$1,563 | -$1,522 | -$1,480 |
| $136 (-15%) | -$1,570 | -$1,551 | -$1,521 | -$1,480 |
| $144 (-10%) | -$1,415 | -$1,443 | -$1,474 | -$1,480 |
| $152 (-5%) | -$1,016 | -$1,064 | -$1,130 | -$1,237 |
| $157 (-2%) | -$657 | -$694 | -$734 | -$756 |
| $160 (0%) โ spot | -$382 | -$407 | -$429 | -$435 |
| $164 (+2%) | -$87 | -$103 | -$113 | -$114 |
| $168 (+5%) | +$376 | +$369 | +$367 | +$367 |
| $175 (+9%) โ target | +$1,022 | +$1,020 | +$1,020 | +$1,020 |
| $185 (+15%) | +$1,972 | +$1,972 | +$1,972 | +$1,972 |
| $193 (+20%) | +$2,774 | +$2,774 | +$2,774 | +$2,774 |
Uses PM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.