Target Price Playground
PM
$160.45
๐ข
PM IV: 10.8% โ LOW
(-81.1% vs 30d avg of 56.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $185 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $160 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.5 ยท ฮ 0.54
LONG PUT ยท $160 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.1 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PM hits $185 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns +$840 (50.6%) on $1,660 risked, vs +$2,455 (15.3%) for 100 shares on $16,045. Options give 3.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PM is at $185. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PM hits $185 by Jun 19
+$840
+50.6% on $1,660 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$1,660
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$176.60
+10.07% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
1%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
8.38 / -13.37 / 53.88
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $128 (-20%) | +$1,373 | +$1,415 | +$1,459 | +$1,504 |
| $136 (-15%) | +$575 | +$614 | +$657 | +$702 |
| $144 (-10%) | -$178 | -$172 | -$145 | -$101 |
| $152 (-5%) | -$728 | -$812 | -$890 | -$903 |
| $157 (-2%) | -$863 | -$995 | -$1,160 | -$1,384 |
| $160 (0%) โ spot | -$851 | -$997 | -$1,186 | -$1,615 |
| $164 (+2%) | -$759 | -$902 | -$1,078 | -$1,294 |
| $168 (+5%) | -$496 | -$612 | -$731 | -$813 |
| $177 (+10%) | +$160 | +$92 | +$36 | -$10 |
| $185 (+15%) โ target | +$977 | +$929 | +$885 | +$840 |
| $193 (+20%) | +$1,726 | +$1,683 | +$1,639 | +$1,594 |
Uses PM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.