Target Price Playground
PRGS
$26.65
๐ก
PRGS IV: 59.2% โ NORMAL
(-10.7% vs 30d avg of 66.3%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $29 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $26.65 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $29 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.84 ยท ฮ 0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PRGS hits $29 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$419 (16.9%) on $2,481 risked, vs +$235 (8.8%) for 100 shares on $2,665. Options give 1.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PRGS is at $29. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PRGS hits $29 by Jun 19
+$419
+16.9% on $2,481 risked
Max Profit
+$419
If the stock โฅ $29 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$2,481
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$24.81
-6.92% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
73%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
57.03 / 2.08 / -4.48
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PRGS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $21 (-20%) | -$385 | -$365 | -$352 | -$349 |
| $23 (-15%) | -$275 | -$247 | -$224 | -$216 |
| $24 (-10%) | -$173 | -$138 | -$102 | -$83 |
| $25 (-5%) | -$81 | -$38 | +$11 | +$51 |
| $26 (-2%) | -$31 | +$16 | +$72 | +$131 |
| $27 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$49 | +$110 | +$184 |
| $27 (+2%) | +$29 | +$81 | +$145 | +$237 |
| $28 (+5%) | +$70 | +$124 | +$193 | +$317 |
| $29 (+9%) โ target | +$118 | +$173 | +$245 | +$419 |
| $29 (+10%) | +$131 | +$187 | +$259 | +$419 |
| $31 (+15%) | +$183 | +$239 | +$309 | +$419 |
| $32 (+20%) | +$225 | +$280 | +$345 | +$419 |
Uses PRGS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.