Target Price Playground
PRGS
$26.65
๐ก
PRGS IV: 59.2% โ NORMAL
(-10.7% vs 30d avg of 66.3%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $25 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $27 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.19 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $25 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.8 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PRGS hits $25 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$141 (101.1%) on $139 risked, vs $-165 (-6.2%) for 100 shares on $2,665. Options give 16.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PRGS is at $25. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PRGS hits $25 by Jun 19
+$141
+101.1% on $139 risked
Max Profit
+$138
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$127
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$27.72
+4.01% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
81%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-9.89 / 0.26 / 1.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PRGS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $21 (-20%) | +$46 | +$55 | +$66 | +$65 |
| $23 (-15%) | +$39 | +$49 | +$65 | +$82 |
| $24 (-10%) | +$30 | +$40 | +$58 | +$110 |
| $25 (-6%) โ target | +$21 | +$30 | +$47 | +$141 |
| $25 (-5%) | +$18 | +$27 | +$43 | +$121 |
| $26 (-2%) | +$11 | +$18 | +$32 | +$75 |
| $27 (0%) โ spot | +$5 | +$12 | +$23 | +$48 |
| $27 (+2%) | -$0 | +$5 | +$14 | +$23 |
| $28 (+5%) | -$9 | -$6 | -$1 | -$10 |
| $29 (+10%) | -$23 | -$23 | -$26 | -$53 |
| $31 (+15%) | -$37 | -$41 | -$49 | -$83 |
| $32 (+20%) | -$51 | -$57 | -$70 | -$104 |
Uses PRGS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.