Target Price Playground
PRGS
$26.65
๐ก
PRGS IV: 59.2% โ NORMAL
(-10.7% vs 30d avg of 66.3%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $24 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $27 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.74 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PRGS hits $24 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$76 (27.8%) on $274 risked, vs $-315 (-11.8%) for 100 shares on $2,665. Options give 2.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PRGS is at $24. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PRGS hits $24 by Jun 19
+$76
+27.8% on $274 risked
Max Profit
+$2,426
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$274
Premium paid
Break-even
$24.26
-8.97% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
64%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-45.75 / -1.8 / 4.53
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PRGS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $21 (-20%) | +$331 | +$312 | +$295 | +$294 |
| $23 (-15%) | +$232 | +$204 | +$175 | +$161 |
| $24 (-12%) โ target | +$175 | +$142 | +$104 | +$76 |
| $24 (-10%) | +$144 | +$109 | +$67 | +$28 |
| $25 (-5%) | +$66 | +$25 | -$27 | -$106 |
| $26 (-2%) | +$25 | -$18 | -$75 | -$186 |
| $27 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$44 | -$103 | -$239 |
| $27 (+2%) | -$23 | -$68 | -$127 | -$274 |
| $28 (+5%) | -$56 | -$101 | -$160 | -$274 |
| $29 (+10%) | -$102 | -$146 | -$202 | -$274 |
| $31 (+15%) | -$140 | -$181 | -$230 | -$274 |
| $32 (+20%) | -$170 | -$207 | -$248 | -$274 |
Uses PRGS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.