Target Price Playground
PRGS
$26.65
๐ก
PRGS IV: 59.2% โ NORMAL
(-10.7% vs 30d avg of 66.3%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $29 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $26.65 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $25 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.8 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PRGS hits $29 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$55 (1.9%) on $2,845 risked, vs +$235 (8.8%) for 100 shares on $2,665. Options give 0.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PRGS is at $29. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PRGS hits $29 by Jun 19
+$55
+1.9% on $2,845 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$345
Put floors you at $25
Break-even
$28.45
+6.75% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
73%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
65.67 / -1.74 / 4.37
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PRGS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $21 (-20%) | -$268 | -$296 | -$327 | -$345 |
| $23 (-15%) | -$220 | -$255 | -$298 | -$345 |
| $24 (-10%) | -$160 | -$199 | -$251 | -$345 |
| $25 (-5%) | -$87 | -$129 | -$184 | -$313 |
| $26 (-2%) | -$39 | -$81 | -$135 | -$233 |
| $27 (0%) โ spot | -$5 | -$46 | -$99 | -$180 |
| $27 (+2%) | +$31 | -$10 | -$61 | -$127 |
| $28 (+5%) | +$88 | +$49 | +$1 | -$47 |
| $29 (+9%) โ target | +$164 | +$128 | +$86 | +$55 |
| $29 (+10%) | +$189 | +$154 | +$114 | +$87 |
| $31 (+15%) | +$297 | +$266 | +$235 | +$220 |
| $32 (+20%) | +$411 | +$384 | +$361 | +$353 |
Uses PRGS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.