Target Price Playground
PRGS
$26.65
๐ก
PRGS IV: 59.2% โ NORMAL
(-10.7% vs 30d avg of 66.3%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $31 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $27 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.61 ยท ฮ 0.54
LONG PUT ยท $27 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.74 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PRGS hits $31 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-135 (-25.3%) on $535 risked, vs +$435 (16.3%) for 100 shares on $2,665. Options give 1.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PRGS is at $31. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PRGS hits $31 by Jun 19
$-135
-25.3% on $535 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$535
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$21.65
-18.77% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
52%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
8.51 / -3.93 / 9.06
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PRGS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $21 (-20%) | +$130 | +$83 | +$42 | +$33 |
| $23 (-15%) | +$65 | +$2 | -$64 | -$100 |
| $24 (-10%) | +$21 | -$57 | -$148 | -$233 |
| $25 (-5%) | -$1 | -$89 | -$202 | -$367 |
| $26 (-2%) | -$3 | -$96 | -$217 | -$447 |
| $27 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$95 | -$219 | -$500 |
| $27 (+2%) | +$6 | -$90 | -$216 | -$517 |
| $28 (+5%) | +$22 | -$76 | -$201 | -$437 |
| $29 (+10%) | +$63 | -$32 | -$151 | -$303 |
| $31 (+15%) | +$120 | +$31 | -$74 | -$170 |
| $31 (+16%) โ target | +$138 | +$50 | -$50 | -$135 |
| $32 (+20%) | +$193 | +$111 | +$22 | -$37 |
Uses PRGS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.