Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If QBTS hits $15 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$151 (13.1%) on $-151 credit (max loss $1,149), vs +$75 (5.3%) for 100 shares on $1,425. Options give 2.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if QBTS is at $15. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| QBTS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $11 (-20%) | -$120 | -$91 | -$54 | -$9 |
| $12 (-15%) | -$83 | -$51 | -$10 | +$62 |
| $13 (-10%) | -$50 | -$17 | +$28 | +$134 |
| $14 (-5%) | -$22 | +$13 | +$58 | +$151 |
| $14 (-2%) | -$6 | +$28 | +$73 | +$151 |
| $14 (0%) โ spot | +$3 | +$38 | +$82 | +$151 |
| $15 (+2%) | +$12 | +$47 | +$90 | +$151 |
| $15 (+5%) โ target | +$26 | +$59 | +$101 | +$151 |
| $16 (+10%) | +$44 | +$76 | +$115 | +$151 |
| $16 (+15%) | +$60 | +$90 | +$125 | +$151 |
| $17 (+20%) | +$73 | +$102 | +$133 | +$151 |