Target Price Playground
QBTS
$14.25
๐ข
QBTS IV: 88.9% โ LOW
(-22.7% vs 30d avg of 114.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $16 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $14.25 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $16 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.76 ยท ฮ 0.5
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If QBTS hits $16 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$301 (24.1%) on $1,249 risked, vs +$125 (8.8%) for 100 shares on $1,425. Options give 2.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if QBTS is at $16. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if QBTS hits $16 by Jun 19
+$301
+24.1% on $1,249 risked
Max Profit
+$301
If the stock โฅ $16 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,249
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$12.49
-12.35% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
82%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
50.06 / 1.71 / -2.44
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| QBTS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $11 (-20%) | -$173 | -$147 | -$122 | -$109 |
| $12 (-15%) | -$124 | -$94 | -$60 | -$38 |
| $13 (-10%) | -$79 | -$44 | -$3 | +$34 |
| $14 (-5%) | -$37 | +$1 | +$48 | +$105 |
| $14 (-2%) | -$15 | +$25 | +$76 | +$147 |
| $14 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$41 | +$93 | +$176 |
| $15 (+2%) | +$14 | +$56 | +$110 | +$205 |
| $15 (+5%) | +$34 | +$77 | +$133 | +$247 |
| $16 (+9%) โ target | +$57 | +$101 | +$159 | +$301 |
| $16 (+10%) | +$65 | +$109 | +$167 | +$301 |
| $16 (+15%) | +$92 | +$137 | +$194 | +$301 |
| $17 (+20%) | +$116 | +$161 | +$217 | +$301 |
Uses QBTS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.