Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If QCOM hits $135 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$515 (4.5%) on $-515 credit (max loss $11,485), vs +$694 (5.4%) for 100 shares on $12,806. Options give 0.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if QCOM is at $135. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| QCOM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $102 (-20%) | -$1,288 | -$1,249 | -$1,223 | -$1,240 |
| $109 (-15%) | -$804 | -$727 | -$643 | -$600 |
| $115 (-10%) | -$404 | -$299 | -$162 | +$40 |
| $122 (-5%) | -$95 | +$21 | +$176 | +$515 |
| $126 (-2%) | +$48 | +$162 | +$308 | +$515 |
| $128 (0%) โ spot | +$128 | +$237 | +$371 | +$515 |
| $131 (+2%) | +$197 | +$298 | +$417 | +$515 |
| $135 (+5%) โ target | +$291 | +$378 | +$468 | +$515 |
| $141 (+10%) | +$379 | +$444 | +$499 | +$515 |
| $147 (+15%) | +$439 | +$483 | +$511 | +$515 |
| $154 (+20%) | +$474 | +$501 | +$514 | +$515 |