Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If QLYS hits $80 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$420 (6.4%) on $-420 credit (max loss $6,580), vs +$380 (5.0%) for 100 shares on $7,620. Options give 1.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if QLYS is at $80. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| QLYS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $61 (-20%) | -$724 | -$643 | -$550 | -$484 |
| $65 (-15%) | -$491 | -$392 | -$267 | -$103 |
| $69 (-10%) | -$294 | -$184 | -$39 | +$278 |
| $72 (-5%) | -$131 | -$18 | +$131 | +$420 |
| $75 (-2%) | -$49 | +$63 | +$207 | +$420 |
| $76 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$110 | +$248 | +$420 |
| $78 (+2%) | +$45 | +$151 | +$282 | +$420 |
| $80 (+5%) โ target | +$104 | +$205 | +$323 | +$420 |
| $84 (+10%) | +$185 | +$274 | +$368 | +$420 |
| $88 (+15%) | +$247 | +$323 | +$393 | +$420 |
| $91 (+20%) | +$294 | +$357 | +$407 | +$420 |